A Mass-Shifting Phenomenon of Truncated Multivariate Normal Priors

نویسندگان

چکیده

We show that lower-dimensional marginal densities of dependent zero-mean normal distributions truncated to the positive orthant exhibit a mass-shifting phenomenon. Despite multivariate density having mode at origin, assigns increasingly small mass near origin as dimension increases. The phenomenon accentuates with stronger correlation between random variables. This surprising behavior has serious implications toward Bayesian constrained estimation and inference, where prior, in addition full support, is required assign substantial probability capture flat parts true function interest. A precise quantification for both prior posterior, characterizing role well dependence, provided under variety structures. Without further modification, we priors are not suitable modeling regions propose novel alternative strategy based on shrinking coordinates using multiplicative scale parameter. proposed shrinkage shown achieve optimal posterior contraction around functions potentially regions. Synthetic real data studies demonstrate how modification guards against shifting while retaining computational efficiency. Supplementary materials this article available online.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the American Statistical Association

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0162-1459', '1537-274X', '2326-6228', '1522-5445']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2022.2129059